Home Buddies Economic Outlook 3 - Credit and Investor Opportunity
Over the past several weeks we have taken a bird's eye view of the US economy. In this post I will be addressing what we will likely see happening in mortgage and real estate markets in 2009. Finally, I will point out the unique opportunities that are available in this type of environment.
Credit Markets & Lending
It seems the biggest story coming out of 2008 is the Fed's announcement in November to buy up $600 billion in unsecured debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie. The push is an attempt by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to steer toward lower mortgage rates - not just lower short-term rates.
The sole reason the Fed did this was to lower debt cost (i.e. make it cheaper to obtain a mortgage). They are attempting to kill two birds with one stone by making mortgages cheaper in hopes of enticing potential single family home buyers with credit to come off of the sidelines and purchase.
Investors have always had the role of stabilizing property values after every bust and this cycle is no different. When investors and retail buyers begin to buy up property, values will start to recover which helps the banks' balance sheets. The good news for loan officers is that the cycle so far has been pretty predictable and we have long been anticipating a new refinance boom that usually comes after federal manipulation.
Real Estate Markets
There are a few things to keep an eye on in Houston. If housing permits continue to contract, it could be a while before the national residential real estate scene improves. Several markets such as Houston are still bucking the national trend, but, even in these markets, permits are beginning to contract which is pointing toward a slow-down as we head into 2009.
Layoffs will be the biggest indicator for Houston for next year. If there are massive job losses then the already fragile market could see a big setback.
Opportunities
Fear in markets leads to an over-correction and there may never be a better time to buy property in Houston - if you have good credit. In otherwise stable markets like Houston, fear is causing prices to move below what Houston's economic indicators should warrant.
With credit standards like they are right now, many investors (and most retail buyers) are out of the game because they are not able to get financing for single family homes. So now is a window of opportunity for smart investors with good credit to buy up undervalued investment properies in Houston.
Credit Markets & Lending
It seems the biggest story coming out of 2008 is the Fed's announcement in November to buy up $600 billion in unsecured debt and mortgage-backed securities from Fannie and Freddie. The push is an attempt by the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to steer toward lower mortgage rates - not just lower short-term rates.
The sole reason the Fed did this was to lower debt cost (i.e. make it cheaper to obtain a mortgage). They are attempting to kill two birds with one stone by making mortgages cheaper in hopes of enticing potential single family home buyers with credit to come off of the sidelines and purchase.
Investors have always had the role of stabilizing property values after every bust and this cycle is no different. When investors and retail buyers begin to buy up property, values will start to recover which helps the banks' balance sheets. The good news for loan officers is that the cycle so far has been pretty predictable and we have long been anticipating a new refinance boom that usually comes after federal manipulation.
Real Estate Markets
There are a few things to keep an eye on in Houston. If housing permits continue to contract, it could be a while before the national residential real estate scene improves. Several markets such as Houston are still bucking the national trend, but, even in these markets, permits are beginning to contract which is pointing toward a slow-down as we head into 2009.
Layoffs will be the biggest indicator for Houston for next year. If there are massive job losses then the already fragile market could see a big setback.
Opportunities
Fear in markets leads to an over-correction and there may never be a better time to buy property in Houston - if you have good credit. In otherwise stable markets like Houston, fear is causing prices to move below what Houston's economic indicators should warrant.
With credit standards like they are right now, many investors (and most retail buyers) are out of the game because they are not able to get financing for single family homes. So now is a window of opportunity for smart investors with good credit to buy up undervalued investment properies in Houston.
About the Author:
Home Buddies is a Houston credit repair coach for real estate investors. Home Buddies coaches clients through the process of restoring credit and creates a business development strategy to help them overcome obstacles to financing properties and growing their portfolio.
posted by Credit Counseling at
6:43 AM
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