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Friday, January 2, 2009

Exit Strategy For Bad Mortgages: House Short Sale

By Doc Smithson

"Do I really need a house short sale?" That's the first question you should ask yourself. If your way upside down on your mortgage, and you want to avoid foreclosure, read on! I'm not a real estate pro, I'm just an investor who got caught up in the same situation your in now. For me, it hurts so much more because I have so much more debt. Here's how I determined my positions:

1) Get a Great Realtor: I would interview a number of them, and find a good fit for your situation. Preferably, they have a degree in finance and a brokers license in real estate. Don't be afraid to ask the tough questions, because its your life, your house short sale, and your money! You don't want to find someone that will make a bad situation worse! Be careful of the referral service mills too. They always ask for money up front, and that should be a big red flag! All of the legitimate realtors I found will never ask you for a dime. They pay all costs including advertising, and the bank pays them a finders fee.

2) Find the Present Market Value: You need this to figure out just how upside down you are. Do not spend the money on an official appraisal. They cost $300-$500 and they won't be any good in a few months anyway! Your realtor will give you a good idea of the what the home is worth, and how much it can bring in as a distressed home. The more upside down you are, the better your chances of a successful house short sale. So forget about the nice drapes and all the sweat you put into your lawn. Just let the straight numbers do the talking.

3) Judgement Time: This is where you determine if you need a house short sale. Take your total loan amount, and subtract the present value of the house. Not what you think it's worth, but how much you can get for it TODAY. This is how much your "Upside Down" in the loan. Then, figure your annual expenses including a year's worth of payments, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and repairs. This is your "Yearly Cost" to keep the house. Now, take the amount your upside down and multiply it by 8%. We will assume the best case scenario. In a FAST appreciating market, this is how much your house value would go up each year, if the housing bubble was over today. (yeah right!) We'll call this number: "Appreciation per Year." Finally, divide the Upside Down amount, by Appreciation per Year. This is how many years it will take for you just to break even with the amount you owe on your loan. No profit, no realized appreciation. Compare the Number of Years to Break even with Yearly Cost to Keep the House. Can you hold out for that long? Does it still make sense to hold on? Or would letting it go make more sense?

To illustrate: Let's say you bought a duplex with a $1,000,000 loan. In just one year it has depreciated drastically and will sell for only $800,000. Is it a good idea to seek a short sale?

Upside Down: $800,000 - $600,000 = $200,000 Annual Costs: Includes all yearly expenses = $60,000 Appreciation: Assuming a booming market = $200,000 x .08 = $16,000

The Bottom Line: It will cost $60,000 per year in payments, for 12.5 years, just to break even with the original value. That's assuming a strong market with all 12.5 of those years of appreciation, at 8%. In that time period over $750,000 will have been spent in principle, interest, taxes, and insurance, along with other expenses with no equity gain.

You don't have to guess what I decided to do. My numbers we're very similar to these. I know I'll take a hit on my credit, but for me, 2 -3 years to rebuild my credit is a lot better than 12.5 years of suffering. I'm going to call it quits and live to fight another day.

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